Expansion
Three axes. The stage ladder deepens the product as the kid ages. Geography widens the addressable market. Adjacencies turn the brand into a platform. Every vector is gated on the core loop holding.
The base SOM in the model only counts US consumer subscription revenue on the Builder tier. Every expansion vector is additive and gated. None of them is baked into the base case. Each one has a named precondition, a measurable trigger, and its own ramp in the scenario sheet.
The sequencing is deliberate. The stage ladder (deepening the product) ships before geography (widening the market) because retention compounds faster with an age-appropriate surface than with a new market. Adjacencies come third because they require the brand and the concept graph to have compounded far enough that a second product is a natural extension rather than a distraction.
Expansion tree
Expansion sequencing
Each vector carries a target year, a revenue contribution at Y5, a risk note, and a rough incremental cost. Revenue contributions are directional and summed on top of the base-case subscription stack; the precise split lives in the scenario sheet.
| Target year | Y5 revenue contribution | Primary risk | Incremental cost | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stage down (age 5 to 7) | Y3 | TODO(expansion) | Voice-first pipeline quality; kid session depth | 1 eng, 1 designer, 9 months | |
| Stage up (age 15 to 18) | Y4 | TODO(expansion) | Cannibalization risk into adult developer tools | 1 eng, Sandpack-to-Nix migration project | |
| CA / UK / AU | Y3 | TODO(expansion) | Currency + local payment rails; minimal regulatory work | Marketing lift only; no eng rebuild | |
| EU | Y4 | TODO(expansion) | GDPR-K enforcement + localization cost | 1 eng, EU counsel + DPO retainer | |
| School pilot conversion | Y2 | TODO(expansion) | District procurement cycle length | Head of school GTM + 1 CSM | → |
| Branded hardware | Y5 | TODO(expansion) | Inventory + physical QA; licensing-led mitigates | Licensing partner; negligible in-house build cost |
TODO(expansion): revenue contributions are pending a scenario-sheet refresh. They will resolve to named cells in the model once the expansion tab is locked.