Where this ends. What it returns.
Three exit paths. An IPEV triangulation across the scenarios. Comparable transactions in edtech, AI-native software, and consumer subscription. At the base case, a tier-1 SAFE triples capital in 4 to 6 years. At upside, 6 to 10x.
Seed-stage returns on a SAFE are a function of three things. The enterprise value at exit, the dilution between today and exit (Series A at roughly 20%, Series B at roughly 18%), and the cap on the SAFE ($18M). The sheet triangulates exit EV across six IPEV methods. The cap and dilution translate that exit EV into a per-share return for the seed participant.
IPEV range by scenario
Downside / Base / Upside. Multiples are applied to the relevant scenario-case revenue, EBITDA, or enterprise-value equivalent. Implied EV is the method-weighted aggregate. Base matches the sheet (ipev_valuation_mid).
| Downside | Base | Upside | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue multiple | 4x | 8x | 12x | |
| EBITDA multiple | 12x | 18x | 24x | |
| Strategic premium | +10% | +25% | +45% | |
| Implied enterprise value (Y5 horizon) | $0.7B | $2.6B | $5.5B |
The IPEV anchors in the hero strip (low $13.4M / mid $20.9M / high $29.7M) describe the present-value triangulation used to set the cap, not the exit EV. The exit EV row above is the horizon valuation used to compute MOIC and IRR. Two different views, same weighted method set.
Comparable transactions
A curated mix of public and private exits plus one recent AI-native coding raise. Each row carries the multiple at exit (or last round), the timing, and the relevance to Tekku.
| Multiple at exit | Timing | Relevance | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duolingo IPO (2021) | ~18x revenue at IPO | Nine years founding to IPO | Closest public comp for consumer-education subscription. Premium ARPU and retention design are the benchmarks. | |
| Khan Academy (parallel valuations) | N/A (non-profit) | Continuous | Parallel valuations on Khanmigo venture rounds price AI-tutor pattern. Informs the AI-ed premium. | |
| Codecademy acquired by Skillsoft (2021) | ~5x revenue | 11 years founding to exit | Adult coding education acquired into an L&D roll-up. Sets the floor for coding-education multiples. | |
| ABCmouse (Age of Learning, private) | ~3-5x revenue | Private, 15+ years compounding | Kid-education subscription at scale with parent-buyer pattern. Informs the premium-consumer lane. | |
| Outschool (2021 peak, private) | ~8x revenue | Peak 2021, mark-down since | Purest parent-buyer kid-learning pattern match. Informs our IPEV low case. | |
| Lovable (2025 raise, private) | ~50x revenue at raise | Recent AI-native coding raise | AI-native coding pattern, adult audience. Upper bound for AI-native premium in our category universe. |
Multiples are at exit or at last published round. The Tekku IPEV triangulation uses method-specific weightings rather than a single comparable multiple; this table is the qualitative frame, not the arithmetic.